If you followed real estate headlines over the last three years, you could reasonably conclude that the market was unaffordable, competitive, stalled, recovering, and weakening, sometimes all in the same month. Each description held a piece of the truth. None captured the whole market.
The most important change since the summer of 2023 is not a dramatic collapse in home values. It is a change in how the market functions. Far fewer people moved. Financing remained expensive. Owners with older, lower-rate mortgages were reluctant to sell. Buyers became more selective, and the outcome of a sale depended increasingly on location, condition, property type, and price.
Nationally, transactions fell much further than prices
In 2023, 4.09 million existing homes sold nationwide, the lowest annual total since 1995. Annual sales then remained near that level, at 4.06 million in both 2024 and 2025. Yet the national median sale price rose from $389,300 in 2023 to $407,600 in 2024 and $414,300 in 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors.
That combination matters. A traditional housing downturn is often imagined as a large wave of sellers competing for too few buyers. The last three years looked different. Many potential sellers simply stayed put, which constrained the number of homes available. Buyers faced higher monthly payments, so they also pulled back. The result was a low-volume market where prices remained surprisingly resilient.
The market became less about a single direction and more about the gap between one property and the next.
Mortgage rates changed behavior
In late August 2023, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18%, according to Freddie Mac's historical survey. Three years later it was 6.66%, based on the current Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That is an improvement, but it is not a return to the unusually low financing costs buyers and owners experienced earlier in the decade.
The rate itself is only part of the story. It changed the choices people made. A homeowner with a mortgage near 3% had a strong reason not to trade it for a new loan above 6%. A buyer who could afford a particular price at a lower rate often had to reduce the target price, increase the down payment, or accept a larger monthly payment. Both forces reduced the number of transactions.
By July 2026, the national market was still moving slowly. Existing-home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 4.06 million. Inventory had improved to 1.54 million homes, equal to 4.6 months of supply, while the national median existing-home price was $434,100, up 2% from a year earlier. Those figures from NAR's July 2026 report show a market gaining supply without experiencing a broad price break.
Seattle and the Eastside are gaining inventory
The local shift is easier to see in the number of homes available. In July 2026, active listings across the Northwest Multiple Listing Service area were up 19.8% from a year earlier. King County inventory was up 23.7%. Regionwide, new listings increased 10.5%, while pending sales declined 7.2% and closed sales declined 3.2%.
That pushed the regional market to 3.74 months of inventory. NWMLS describes four to six months as balanced. The regional median sale price was $640,000, down 1.5% year over year, while King County's median was $879,500. The complete figures are available in the NWMLS July 2026 market snapshot.
More inventory gives buyers something they lacked in many recent seasons: comparison. A buyer may be able to see several plausible homes, study how long each has been available, and weigh condition against price. That can create room for an inspection contingency, a price discussion, or seller-paid closing costs in situations where those terms were harder to obtain before.
It does not mean every Seattle or Eastside neighborhood has become a buyer's market. Redmond, Bellevue, Kirkland, Sammamish, Issaquah, Bothell, and Seattle each contain many smaller markets. A well-prepared home near everyday amenities may attract immediate interest. A dated home with a difficult layout or an aggressive price may sit. Condominiums can behave differently from single-family homes. Even within one neighborhood, two listings can produce very different outcomes.
What this means if you are buying
Today's buyer has more opportunity to be deliberate, but affordability still requires discipline. Start with the payment you can comfortably carry rather than the maximum price a calculator approves. Compare insurance, taxes, homeowner association dues, and likely maintenance alongside principal and interest.
Use the expanding inventory to learn. I perform searches for my clients and filter the results around the features that actually matter to them, including location, commute, layout, condition, and long-term plans. That is more useful than forwarding every home that falls inside a broad price range.
When a property fits, the offer should reflect that specific home. Some listings still justify decisive terms. Others may give you time for a thorough inspection and a thoughtful negotiation. Assume the current mortgage payment needs to work for you. A future refinance would be welcome, but it should not be the plan that makes the purchase affordable.
What this means if you are selling
Sellers still benefit from substantial long-term appreciation and limited supply in many neighborhoods. What has changed is the margin for error. Buyers who have several alternatives are quicker to notice an awkward presentation, visible deferred maintenance, or a price that does not match the home.
Preparation should be strategic. Not every improvement deserves the time or money. The goal is to address the issues most likely to interrupt buyer confidence, present the home clearly, and choose a price that creates attention while the listing is fresh.
A pre-listing inspection can be especially helpful. Many buyers will want an inspection contingency. Finding concerns before the home reaches the market gives you a chance to repair them, obtain specialist opinions, or disclose them clearly. That can reduce surprises and make the closing process smoother.
The first days on the market remain important. If buyers consistently visit but do not write, or if online interest fails to become showings, that feedback deserves a prompt response. Waiting for the market to agree with an unsupported price is usually not a strategy.
What I am watching next
No single number will define the next phase. Mortgage rates will shape purchasing power and the willingness of current owners to move. New listings compared with pending sales will show whether choices continue to build. Price reductions and days on market will reveal whether seller expectations are adjusting. Months of supply will help show when greater selection becomes sustained negotiating leverage.
I will also watch the differences beneath the headline numbers. Citywide and countywide medians can change because a different mix of homes sold. They do not measure the value change of every home. The most useful analysis is still local and property-specific.
A better question than “Where is the market going?”
The last 36 months are a reminder that a market can have low sales, resilient prices, strained affordability, and improving inventory at the same time. The useful question is not whether the market is universally good or bad. It is whether the current conditions support your goals, and how to make a sound decision within them.
If you are weighing a move in Seattle or on the Eastside, I am happy to look at the part of the market that actually applies to you. We can talk through the homes, the numbers, and the tradeoffs without turning the conversation into a sales pitch.
Market data changes monthly. Median prices describe the mix of homes sold and should not be read as the value of every property. National figures come from Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors. Local figures come from Northwest Multiple Listing Service reporting for July 2026.
